Winter Storm Gerri is forecasted to generate 3 to 4 feet of tidal surge on Saturday afternoon, January 13th, similar to recent flooding caused by Winter Storm Finn on Wednesday. The Stevens Flood Advisory System predicts water levels at least 7 feet above Mean Low Low Water (MLLW) at high tide on Saturday afternoon, which is 3PM at Saugerties. Flooding may cover the pavement of Lighthouse Drive at high tide.

The level of water in the tidal portion of Esopus Creek is minimally affected by the shape or depth of the channel bottom at high tide. No matter how deep the channel is, the tide reaches an elevation established by the water surface elevation in the Hudson River as indicated by the Turkey Point tide station.