Winter Storm Finn delivered tidal flooding to the Saugerties waterfront midday on Wednesday, January 10, 2024, and Winter Storm Gerri is forecasted to deliver similar flooding on Saturday. On Wednesday morning, the Battery tide gauge in Manhattan registered a surge over 4 feet at low tide and nearly 3 feet at high tide. This surge continued up the Hudson River, and runoff from over 2″ of rainfall on snow overnight added to the tidal surge. According to the Turkey Point tide gauge, the water level crested above 8 feet, which was over 3.5 feet above normal high tide and slightly higher than flood levels on December 18, 2023. At high tide today at 12:15PM in Saugerties, the pavement of Lighthouse Drive was covered in water.

Tracking Winter Storm Gerri, the Stevens Flood Advisory System at Davidson Laboratory is forecasting 3 to 4 feet of surge on Saturday afternoon at high tide, bringing the water back up to similar levels as Finn. High tide is at 3PM on Saturday, January 13 at Saugerties.

The level of water in the tidal portion of Esopus Creek is minimally affected by the shape or depth of the channel bottom at high tide. No matter how deep the channel is, the tide reaches an elevation established by the water surface elevation in the Hudson River as indicated by the Turkey Point tide station.