Winter Storm Gerri is forecasted to generate 3 to 4 feet of tidal surge on Saturday afternoon, January 13th, similar to recent flooding caused by Winter Storm Finn on Wednesday. The Stevens Flood Advisory System predicts water levels at least 7 feet above Mean Low Low Water (MLLW) at high tide on Saturday afternoon, which is 3PM at Saugerties. Flooding may cover the pavement of Lighthouse Drive at high tide.
Stevens Flood Advisory System forecast for Tivoli/Saugerties showing predicted surge of 3 or greater coinciding with high tide on Saturday with water levels likely 7.5′ MLLW or greater.
The level of water in the tidal portion of Esopus Creek is minimally affected by the shape or depth of the channel bottom at high tide. No matter how deep the channel is, the tide reaches an elevation established by the water surface elevation in the Hudson River as indicated by the Turkey Point tide station.
Storm tide from Winter Storm Finn covered Lighthouse Drive at noon on January 10, 2024.
Winter Storm Finn delivered tidal flooding to the Saugerties waterfront midday on Wednesday, January 10, 2024, and Winter Storm Gerri is forecasted to deliver similar flooding on Saturday. On Wednesday morning, the Battery tide gauge in Manhattan registered a surge over 4 feet at low tide and nearly 3 feet at high tide. This surge continued up the Hudson River, and runoff from over 2″ of rainfall on snow overnight added to the tidal surge. According to the Turkey Point tide gauge, the water level crested above 8 feet, which was over 3.5 feet above normal high tide and slightly higher than flood levels on December 18, 2023. At high tide today at 12:15PM in Saugerties, the pavement of Lighthouse Drive was covered in water.
Turkey Point tide gauge showed the water level crested at 8.09 feet at high tide, nearly 3.7 feet above normal.
Tracking Winter Storm Gerri, the Stevens Flood Advisory System at Davidson Laboratory is forecasting 3 to 4 feet of surge on Saturday afternoon at high tide, bringing the water back up to similar levels as Finn. High tide is at 3PM on Saturday, January 13 at Saugerties.
The level of water in the tidal portion of Esopus Creek is minimally affected by the shape or depth of the channel bottom at high tide. No matter how deep the channel is, the tide reaches an elevation established by the water surface elevation in the Hudson River as indicated by the Turkey Point tide station.
Screenshot of Stevens flood forecast for Tivoli/Saugerties showing surge predictions for Winter Storms Finn and Gerri. For the latest forecast, visit the Stevens Flood Advisory website.
Please use the comment form on the website to submit comments and feedback on the draft Plan. The comment period will be open until Monday, January 15th.
On December 18, 2023, the water level at Saugerties (Turkey Point, Hudson River tide gauge station) peaked at 5:24 PM at 8.0′ above MLLW. This was 4′ above the normal high tide. The high water was driven by a combination of tidal surge and run-off from rainfall totals of 3.5 to 4.5 inches. By comparison, winter storm Elliot (bomb cyclone) on December 23rd, 2022, reached a slightly higher level of 8.3′ above MLLW, was primarily surge from the ocean, and unaccompanied by much precipitation. Note that the level of water in the tidal Esopus Creek when the tide is high is minimally affected by the shape or depth of the channel bottom. No matter how deep the channel is, the tide reaches an elevation established by the water surface elevation in the Hudson River.
The first draft of the Lower Esopus Stream Management Plan is ready and available for public comment. Please click on the link below to view the draft stream management plan and complete the survey to provide your comments on the plan.
For Monday, December 18th, the Stevens Flood Advisory System is forecasting a storm surge of 3 to 4 feet atop the evening’s high tide, which may cause moderate flooding along low-lying waterfront properties. High tide along the tidal Esopus Creek in Saugerties will be 6:15 PM. The water level may reach or exceed the Moderate Flood Level of 7.2′ above Mean Low Low Water (MLLW). By comparison, last year’s winter storm Elliot on December 23rd, was at Major Flood Level and reached 8.3′ above MLLW. Although lower than last year’s storm tide, it will likely enter yards on Lighthouse Drive and Ferry Street in Saugerties.
Let your voice be heard for the future of the Lower Esopus Creek!
Join Ulster County and the Lower Esopus Creek Advisory Council for a community workshop, hosted both in-person and virtually, on Tuesday, December 5 to learn more about the current conditions of the Lower Esopus Creek and hear updates about the Stream Management Plan, which is currently under development.
The workshop will be held from 6:00-8:00 PM both in-person at the Ulster County Restorative Justice Center, 733 Broadway, Kingston, NY, 12401, as well as on Zoom.
Please indicate which workshop format you plan to attend (in-person or virtual) when registering.
The deadline for the Lower Esopus Stream Management Plan Survey has been extended to Monday, July 17th.
The public survey is available here: https://loweresopussmp-ulstercounty.hub.arcgis.com/pages/survey
We invite you to take a survey to help shape our community’s vision for the lower Esopus Creek. Take the online survey and offer your views on issues like recreational access, natural habitats, and educational opportunities. Ulster County and an advisory council of local organizations are collaborating on a Stream Management Plan for the Lower Esopus. Public input is an important part of the planning process. The public survey is available here: https://loweresopussmp-ulstercounty.hub.arcgis.com/pages/survey
